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The ASX had a cracking session today, with the market jumping on the back of Trump's announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices took a sharp dive – down around 15% – which sparked a broad-based rally across equities. The relief trade was real: investors had been nervous about escalating Middle East tensions, and this temporary pause gave markets room to breathe. It's the kind of 'risk-off' reversal we see when geopolitical uncertainty lifts, even temporarily.

The energy story is mixed though, and that's worth paying attention to. While crude fell sharply, Australian petrol prices are still climbing – the government's even warning that the ceasefire won't translate to cheaper fuel at the bowser anytime soon. That's a reminder that global oil dynamics don't always flow through directly to local prices, especially with supply disruptions like Vale's accelerated Oman maintenance outages and US refineries now processing Venezuelan crude. The inflation risk hasn't vanished; it's just shifted shape.

Tomorrow, we're watching a few things. The two-week window is tight – geopolitical risks could flare up again quickly, so don't mistake today's rally for a trend change. The RBNZ's decision to hold rates at 2.25% while flagging oil-driven inflation risks tells you central banks are still nervous about pricing pressures. We're in late-cycle terrain with rates on hold, which means volatility on global headlines is likely to remain elevated. Sentiment is cautious for a reason.

The real question for Aussie investors: is this ceasefire a genuine turning point or a temporary relief valve? Today felt like the latter. Keep an eye on oil volatility heading into tomorrow – if it creeps back up, so will uncertainty. And watch how sectors that benefited from today's jump perform if sentiment sours again. The rally was real, but it's built on a shaky foundation.