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G'day! What a week it's been. Nvidia absolutely smashed earnings with nearly $100 billion in quarterly revenue and guidance that had the market practically levitating. The AI boom is real, it's accelerating, and there's genuine money flowing into the companies building the infrastructure. Asian tech followed suit, and the enthusiasm was palpable. But here's the thing — while mega-cap tech was stealing the spotlight, there's a much bigger story brewing underneath: inflation just won't budge. The Fed's preferred gauge came in at 3.3% annually, well above their 2% comfort zone, and suddenly the conversation about rate hikes is back on the table. Welcome to the late-cycle squeeze.

So what does this mean for you? We're in a tricky spot. On one hand, you've got Nvidia and the AI narrative pulling capital into a narrow slice of the market — and frankly, if you're holding quality tech, this is your moment. On the other hand, persistent inflation means the Fed might need to stay restrictive for longer, which eventually catches up with borrowing costs and earnings growth for everyone else. The AUD sitting at 0.720 is worth watching here too — if US rates do go higher, the greenback gets stronger, which can pressure commodity prices and our export-heavy ASX. It's not doom, but it's a regime where you can't just buy and forget.

Here's what to think about over the weekend: Is this Nvidia rally sustainable, or is it priced for perfection? Have a look at their guidance — $108 billion next quarter is enormous, but the bar is now absurdly high. More broadly, ask yourself whether your portfolio is too concentrated in the AI winners and underexposed to the rest of the market. And as the Fed heads into Jackson Hole next week, keep an ear out for any hints about rate policy. Kevin Warsh and Jerome Powell will be talking about "stable prices" a lot, which is code for: we're not done fighting inflation yet.

Heading into next week, watch for Fed speakers, any updates on US labour data, and earnings from the big banks. The inflation puzzle and rate path will ultimately matter more than any single stock price. Enjoy your weekend — you've earned the debrief.